Sep/090
Why Don’t They Call it the Big 11?
The 2009 College Football season kicks off this week. Does anyone else share my spastic enthusiasm for this sport? Have you been counting down the days until kickoff? Do you plan on watching 12 hours of football every Saturday for four months? Does your girlfriend catch you sneaking out of bed in the middle of the night to check your favorite team’s website? Do you the names of all the high school kids your college is recruiting? And when your team loses to, oh I don’t know… Syracuse, Syracuse, 24-23 last November when you were favored by 19 at home, do you curl up in the fetal position and cry yourself to sleep?
Yes? Oh good, me too.
Now that we’re on the same page, I feel comfortable telling you that I’ve been watching CBSSports and the Big Ten Network religiously the past six weeks or so in order to get my college football fix. After watching a lot of last year’s games, I’ve formed some opinions on how I think this season will shake out. I’m watching the Big Ten Network as I write this. So, for now, I’ll focus on this conference exclusively, giving you a prediction and the Big things you ought to know about all 11 teams in the Big 11 followed by three key players you might not know much about, but should:
1. OHIO STATE – Aside from wide receiver, the Buckeyes’ big question mark is linebacker. With James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman gone to the NFL, and slated ’09 WLB Tyler Moeller out for the year, who will step up alongside lone returning starter Ross Homan? Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell may be the best pair of safeties to line up together in the whole conference, and don’t be surprised if Junior Cameron Heyward (son of former NFL fullback Mike “Ironhead” Heyward) comes on as one of the top D lineman in the nation. The difference between competing for a conference championship and a BCS National Championship hinges on how quickly Sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor’s grasp of the Buckeye offense catches up with his “out of this world” athletic ability.
2. PENN STATE- Senior Daryll Clark needs receivers. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th all-time leaders in receiving yards used up their eligibility at the close of the 2008 season. Look for the tight ends to be a big part of the passing game. Also, the Nittany Lions replace their entire ’08 secondary. Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman head Linebacker U’s defense this season and will need to make plays early while 7 new starters adjust to game speed on defense. Running backs Evan Royster and Stephon Green will help Clark motor the offense behind guard-turned-center Stefen Wiesniewski until a receiver can emerge as a legitimate threat to keep opposing defenses from stacking up 8 in the box. Head Coach Joe Paterno is entering his 60th season as a part of Penn State’s coaching staff; nothing to do with conference standings, I just think that’s amazing. Also, did anyone else seen the commercial on Big Ten Network last year where all the coaches do a 3 second pitch on their school and at the end, JoePa is red in the face screaming “COME TO PENN STATE.”?....If he’s still alive later in life, I want him to discipline my children.
3. ILLINOIS- Which receiving targets will step up in ’09 to keep opposing defenses from doubling pre-season All-American WR Rejus Benn? Look for Florida transfer Jarred Fayson, Jeff Cumberland, and pre-season Mackey Award watch list TE Mike Hoomanawanui to make this the most potent passing attack in the Big Ten. The real question is whether the defense can put together a respectable unit, and keep every Illini game from turning into a shootout. If they can put together a solid between the tackles run game, this offense can get to the same level as the Oklahoma’s, Texas’s and Texas Tech’s of the country.
4. MICHIGAN STATE- Sophomore QB, and Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol was just named starter over classmate Kirk Cousins. Will Nichol evolve as a passer or try to rely on his mobility? Can Nichol carry this team long enough for one or two backs to emerge from the 5-deep pack of runners trying to fill in for 1600 yard rusher Javon Ringer? Early non-conference games against the under-the-radar All-American QB candidate Dan LeFevour’s Central Michigan Chippewas and a trip to South Bend to take on a much-improved Irish squad should tell where the Spartans stand heading into a manageable conference schedule (PSU at home, don’t play OSU). Pre-Season Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year MLB Greg Jones leads a defense that brings back 8 starters from a better than average squad in ’08 (22 ppg allowed). The Spartans have a habit of not showing up for their big games (45-7 vs Ohio State, 49-18 vs Penn State last year). Can Sparty finally win one they’re expected to lose?
5. IOWA- Adding pressure to quarterback Ricky Stanzi’s situation(see Key Players below) is the fact that 2008’s leading receiver JR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos is constantly in Coach Kirk Ferentz’ doghouse and will begin the season as a second-stringer. Who will rise to the occasion and lighten Stanzi’s load?
Although the defense returns 8 from one of the nation’s best scoring D’s in ’08, they lose both tackles (Mitch King, Matt Kroul). The Hawkeyes need somebody or some bodies to plug the middle so opposing offenses don’t gash them up front. Also, with the toughest road schedule in the conference, Iowa must improve on their 2-3 away record from last season.
6. NORTHWESTERN- The Wildcats bring back All-American Candidate and 1st Team All Big Ten DE Corey Wootton, and the entire defensive secondary (including three current seniors). Opposing offenses will have a hard time passing on this squad. The real test for the secondary comes against Illinois in November. On offense, Northwestern loses QB CJ Bacher, RB Tyrell Sutton, and their top-3 receivers. The only things they have going on this side of the ball are 4 returning linemen and a mobile QB. Mike Kafka ran for a Big Ten QB record 217 yards against Minnesota last year. Can Kafka take charge of the offense and pass efficiently? Do the Wildcats have guys to step in at every skill position? It will take some time for these guys to get in rhythm with one another. A weak early schedule should help the learning curve. All the same, I’m not sure Kafka has the talent or experience to be in the top half of conference QB’s.
7. MICHIGAN- The obvious question here is QB. RichRod has taken a page from Charlie Weis’ ’07 book and refused to announce the starter for the Sept. 5 opener against Western Michigan. Hopefully for the blue and maize, the move works out better than it did for the ’07 Irish (3-9 record; two of the QB’s transferred). True freshmen Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson have the athletic ability to run the spread offense Rodriguez brought with him from West Virginia, and the Wolverines bring back 10 offensive starters. Brandon Minor will lead the running game after freshman phenom, youtube sensation Sam McGuffie transferred to Rice. If the eventual starting QB can manage the offense and minimize turnovers (which most freshmen QB’s don’t do very well), then Michigan might surprise some people.
8. MINNESOTA- Last year’s Jekyll and Hyde roared out to a 7-1 start, then whimpered through 5 straight losses including a 55-0 shellacking at the hands of Iowa on their home field in the last game of the year, as well as a three touchdown shaming by Kansas in the Insight bowl. Can anybody else step up on offense so that QB Adam Weber and WR Eric Decker can resume the pitch and catch game that netted over 1000 yards and 7 TDs last season? More importantly, can the Gophers’ porous defense improve? With their fourth ‘D’ Coordinator in as many years, it will be tough. Finally, with the way their schedule shakes out don’t be surprised to see Minnesota fly out of the gates with a 5-1 record (3-0 in conference), only to stumble through the second half ending up 6-6, with 5 straight conference losses to end the year.
9. WISCONSIN- With Junior QB Scott Tolzien named starter for the season opener, Brett Bielema’s Badgers have answered their most significant off-season question. Or have they? Bielema also announced that Redshirt Freshman Curt Phillips will take some snaps in the opener. Factor in last year’s part-time starter Dustin Sherer, and you’ve still got confusion at Camp Randall. Maybe the only thing Wisconsin really has going for it is a ground game. Mammoth RB John Clay (6’2”, 245 lbs) fits the mold and reminds the Sconnie faithful of former Badger great, RB Ron Dayne. The fact that Clay is listed as 2nd string RB on the depth chart speaks to the development of starter Zach Brown. Behind one of the better Big Ten O-Lines, look for the Badger rushing attack to keep them in many games this fall. Also, expect the secondary to struggle and the Badgers to give up big numbers through the air.
10. INDIANA- Ben Chappell has experience and will be an effective game manager. The big question (aside from ‘Can they move the ball?’) will be at WR. The Hoosiers’ potential #1 receiver Ray Fisher moves to CB to help out a depleted secondary. Can a couple of guys make plays at receiver and make this a decent offense? On the other side of the ball, this unit will be decent to good if stud DE’s Jammie Kirlew (First-team Big Ten in ’08) and Greg Middleton can force opposing QB’s into making mistakes. Do the Hoosiers have playmakers to take advantage if the bookends can put constant pressure on signal-callers? Converted receiver Fisher could be key here.
11. PURDUE-Corners Brandon King and David Pender combined to break up 21 passes last season. DE Ryan Kerrigan returns after 7 sacks in his sophomore campaign. The Boilermakers return 4 from a poor offensive line, and lose all starting skill position players on offense except WR Keith Smith (49 rec, 486 yd). Expect some Freshmen to get playing time and Freshman Head Coach Danny Hope to go through some major growing pains this year. Miami transfer QB Robert Mavre has to sit out this season. He will lead the Boilers out of the cellar in 2010, but don’t expect much from this squad in ’09.
KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH
DeVier Posey. Unless you’re an Ohio State fan, you probably don’t know this name. I believe that in order for the Buckeyes to win another conference title and compete for a National Championship, this sophomore receiver must become a household name by years' end. OSU lost running back Beanie Wells (1197 rush yards in only 10 games) and their top two receivers in Brian’s Hartline and Robiskie. Dual-threat sophomore quarterback Terrelle Pryor (2008 Big Ten Freshman Player of the Year) will be the focal point for opposing defenses all season long. He needs a go-to target. Top returning receiver Dane Sanzenbacher (21 catches, 272 yards) and dynamic yet inconsistent (not to mention currently suspended) receiver Ray Small simply don’t fit the bill. Coming out of high school, Posey was one of the top five receivers in his class. The other four? Alabama’s Julio Jones, Georgia’s A.J. Green, Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant, and Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd. These guys all came in and produced as freshmen. In order for the Buckeyes to run the table in the conference and have a shot at taking down the USC Trojans on September 12, Posey needs to step up and play to his potential.
Martez Wilson. The lllinois defensive playmaker is making the transition from outside to middle linebacker for the 2009 season. Wilson is the best athlete on the Fighting Illini defense. Nobody is expecting this defense to pitch many shutouts this year. However, if U of I is going to be a top-tier team, the defense will need to make some stops and force some turnovers. Only two of the front seven return from Illinois’ 2008 starting defense (DT Josh Brent, 34 tackles, 7 TFL is the other). This team has the firepower on offense to put up points and make opposing defenses cry. If the Illini are going to be relevant come November, Wilson needs to play like the potential All-American he is. This team will be tested early, facing Missouri, Ohio State (in Columbus), Penn State, and Michigan State within their first five games. Wilson and the Illini need to improve on last years rush defense (gave up over 175 rush yards four times last year , including 176 to EASTERN ILLINOIS) or they could stumble to a 1-4 start.
Ricky Stanzi. Iowa quarterback. Many analysts like to point out his 134.8 pass efficiency rating last year. They talk about the junior signal caller’s potential being through the roof. You need to know about this guy because he leads a team that can contend for a Big Ten title. Ranked #21 in the preseason AP poll, this year’s Hawkeye team returns eight starters from one of the nations best defenses (13 ppg against). The defense should give them an opportunity to win every game despite a tough road schedule, playing away against in-state rival Iowa State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Though the defense looks to be consistent in their transition from ’08 to ’09, the offense needs to plug a gaping hole.
Consensus All-American and Doak Walker Award winner, running back Shonn Greene rushed for 1,850 yards and 20 TDs last year. Greene won’t be in the backfield this season. The loss of Greene puts a whole lot of pressure on the right arm of Ricky Stanzi. Last year, as a sophomore QB, he was an effective game manager (1956 passing yards, 14 TDs). In ’09, that won’t be enough. If Iowa is to contend for a Big Ten crown or a spot in a major bowl, Stanzi must evolve into a playmaker. Jewel Hampton and Paki O’Meara will do a workmanlike job filling Greene’s award-winning shoes in the ground game. However, the success of the 2009 Iowa Hawkeye campaign will depend on how well Stanzi adjusts to his role as leader. Many experts have Ricky Stanzi slated for a breakout year. Personally, I don’t think he has what it takes to push the Hawkeyes into a top-three conference finish. Regardless of my opinion, the Hawkeyes will go only as far as their QB takes them.
The Midwest is alive and well